Recommendation of Tahiti acid lime cultivars through Bayesian probability models.

Probabilistic models enhance breeding, especially for the Tahiti acid lime, a fruit essential to fresh markets and industry. These models identify superior and persistent individuals using probability theory, providing a measure of uncertainty that can aid the recommendation. The objective of our study was to evaluate the use of a Bayesian probabilistic model for the recommendation of superior and persistent genotypes of Tahiti acid lime evaluated in 12 harvests. Leveraging the Monte Carlo Hamiltonian sampling algorithm, we calculated the probability of superior performance (superior genotypic value), and the probability of superior stability (reduced variance of the genotype-by-harvests interaction) of each genotype. The probability of superior stability was compared to a measure of persistence estimated from genotypic values predicted using a frequentist model. Our results demonstrated the applicability and advantages of the Bayesian probabilistic model, yielding similar parameters to those of the frequentist model, while providing further information about the probabilities associated with genotype performance and stability. Genotypes G15, G4, G18, and G11 emerged as the most superior in performance, whereas G24, G7, G13, and G3 were identified as the most stable. This study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian probabilistic models in the fruit trees cultivars recommendation.

Simultaneous selection of cupuassu tree and Brazilian mahogany genotypes in an agroforestry system in Pará state, Brazil

This study aimed to evaluate and select progenies and matrices of cupuassu-tree siblings, and to select Brazilian mahogany matrices with superior characteristics to be used in agroforestry systems (AFS). Twenty-five full cupuassu tree sibling progenies and one Brazilian mahogany half-sibling progeny were evaluated. The study was conducted for 14 years in a commercial property in Tomé Açu, Pará State, Brazil. The number of fruits and fruit yield per plant, as well as the rate of plants with symptoms of witches' broom disease, were used as response variables for cupuassu. For mahogany, the following response variables were used: total height, commercial height, crown height, diameter at breast height and commercial wood volume. There were five cupuassu tree progenies with interesting characteristics to be used in AFS. Based on the high values observed in the selection accuracy and heritabilities, a good potential for the selection of promising individuals in the cupuassu tree population is inferred. Based on the ranking of genotypic values and their agronomic performance, 10 matrices of cupuassu tree were selected. For Brazilian mahogany, three matrices showed excellent silvicultural performance. The matrices of these two species should be propagated vegetatively in order to evaluate clonal tests. (AU)